Climate Change and Coastal Stormwater-Infrastructure Management
Citation:
Yang, J., H. Wei, D. Burnell, AND J. Neal. Climate Change and Coastal Stormwater-Infrastructure Management. EWRI Congress 2023, Henderson, NV, May 21 - 24, 2023.
Impact/Purpose:
Communicate research results to technical communities on integrated modeling of coastal storm surge impacts for adaptation planning and emergency response
Description:
Storm surges and coastal flooding cause large-scale damage to communities and the environments of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Recent investigations on the genesis, tracks, intensity, and landing of Atlantic tropic cyclones, and their compounding floods with sea level rise all show a significant increase of the coastal impacts in the future. For the stochastic hurricane tracks and landing, one approach treats the projected storm surge in probability curves for regional basins. However, for local planning and engineering actions, it remains elusive to effectively manage the projection uncertainties due to the uncertain future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways and large-scale oceanic thermodynamic changes. To address this issue, we propose an objective-based integrated modeling approach to manage the projection uncertainties. The proposed approach utilizes the effects of local bathymetry and at-shore topography on surge propagation, wind field, and flooding risk. It then further tailors the risk management objectives, such as no-regret emergency evacuation and risk-based infrastructure resilience, to the levels of projection uncertainties. In a case study at the Mattapoisett harbor that opens to Buzzards Bay through the 2.8km inlet, the SLOSH model simulation results show the largest surge when the hurricane wind field aligns with the harbor's long axis. The Maximum of Maximum (MOM) is then used in traffic operation modeling to examine evacuation routes, traffic control, and emergency supply for “no-regret” risk management. Furthermore, the simulated maximum envelope of water (MEOW) is integrated with river flow and groundwater models to analyze the probability of saltwater intrusion into the Mattapoisett River and the potable surficial aquifer used in regional drinking water supplies. The risk envelope forms a basis for adaptation planning.